The paper presents examples of application of error correction models (ECM) in forecasting daily changes of market volatility recorded on currency options markets in Poland, Hungary and South Africa. The models are based on the observed correlation between daily changes of spot rates and daily...

This paper deals with the estimation of employment equations for Germany, which are to be used for forecasting and simulation purposes. The authors estimate both single and system error correction equations for German working hours using quarterly raw data covering the period 1980:1-2004:2....

A structural break is viewed as a permanent change in the parameter vector of a model. Using taxonomies of all sources of forecast errors for both conditional mean and conditional variance processes, we consider the impacts of breaks and their relevance in forecasting models: (a) where the...