This paper examines the effect of demand on productivity. We exploit the Energy Policy Act of 2005 as a natural experiment which generated plausibly exogenous variation in the capacity of ethanol plants to establish the causal effect of demand on productivity within the corn sector. Using...

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...

There is no consensus about the causes of the reduction in business cycle volatility seen in many major economies over the last decade. Using stylised models of the economies of the US, Euro area, UK and Japan, we argue that economic stability has been fostered by improved monetary policy and by...