Using a structural model, I analyze how changes in the distribution of signals about unknown economic conditions affect real aggregate macrovariables in the business cycle. I focus on two quantifiable properties of the distribution of signals, the signal accuracy and the correlation structure...

We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches using a dataset for Germany that consists of 123 variables in quarterly frequency. These three approaches handle the dimensionality problem evoked by such a large dataset by aggregating information, yet on different...

In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences...