We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...

This paper provides a full characterization of inflation rate forecasts using the mean values from Consensus Economics for a sample of 14 Latin American countries between 1989 and 2014. It also assesses the performance of inflation rate forecasts around business cycles' turning points. Results...

The forecast of world economic growth plays a key role in the conduct of Canadian monetary policy. In this context, the authors study the usefulness of the monthly Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) in predicting short-term real GDP growth in the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and...