Based on standard New Keynesian models I show that policy counterfactuals based on the theoretical structural VAR representations of the models fail to reliably capture the impact of changes in the parameters of the Taylor rule on the (reduced-form) properties of the economy. Based on estimated...

The Financial Crisis of 2008, and the Great Recession in its wake, have shaken up macroeconomics. The paradigm of the "New" Neoclassical Synthesis, which seemed to provide a robust framework of analysis for short-run macro not long ago, fails to capture key elements of the recent crisis. This...

This book assesses major schools of thought in macroeconomic theory between the Great Depression and the Long Recession, focusing on their analysis of cycles, crises and macro-policy. It explores the road from the dominance of Keynesian ideas to those of New Classical Macroeconomics (NCM) toward...

We use a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real GDP growth, a 3-month nominal rate, and the rate of growth of M4 to investigate the underlying causes of the Great Moderation in the United Kingdom. Our evidence points towards a...