In this paper a dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching is proposed to measure and predict turning points of the German business cycle. It estimates simultaneously the composite leading indicator (CLI) and composite coincident indicator (CCI) together with corresponding probabilities of...

Predicting cycles in economic activity is one of the more challenging but important aspects of economic forecasting. This paper reports the results from estimation of binary probit models that predict the probability of an economy being in a recession using a variety of financial and real...

This paper attempts to construct leading indicator systems for the Malaysian and Philippine economies using publicly available economic and financial data, with a view to predicting turning points of growth cycles in the two countries. The results show that during the sample period of January...