The author shows that the enormous gap between theory and facts in modern macroeconomics can only be eliminated by nonlinear macroeconomic dynamics with the following special characteristics: First of all, only certain group-theoretical invariants generate the correct growth cycles with...

Seit 1971 ist dem ifo Institut die Geschäftsstelle des Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys angegliedert. Alle zwei Jahre treffen sich CIRET-Mitglieder und andere Experten zur Diskussion neuer Forschungsergebnisse. Die umfangreiche Tagesordnung der 22. CIRET-Konferenz,...

The 1990s were the most prosperous decade in U.S. economic history. The paper analyses to which extent this period fits into preceding cyclical experience. This is done by classifying the period 1991-12 to 2000-12 with the help of a 4-phase classification scheme based on multivariate...

This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic volatility on nonfinancial firms cash holding behavior. Using an augmented cash bufferstock model, we demonstrate that an increase in macroeconomic volatility will cause the crosssectional distribution of firms cashtoasset ratios to narrow. We...

Using microdata for adults from the 1987-2000 years of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, I show that smoking and height-adjusted weight decline during temporary economic downturns while leisure-time physical activity rises. The drop in tobacco use occurs disproportionately among...

We show that U.S. manufacturing wages during the Great Depression were importantly determined by forces on firms' intensive margins. Short-run changes in work intensity and the longer-term goal of restoring full potential productivity combined to influence real wage growth. By contrast, the...