We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higherorder risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household data from the United States. We find countercyclical...

We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higher-order risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household data from the United States. We find countercyclical...

We use a machine-learning approach known as Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) to reexamine the usefulness of selected leading indicators for predicting recessions. We estimate the BRT approach on German data and study the relative importance of the indicators and their marginal effects on the...

Im Zentrum der Kommunikationswissenschaft stehen Medienwirkungen, im Zentrum der Volkswirtschaftslehre steht die Konjunktur. Medienwirkungen im thematischen Kontext der Konjunktur hat die Kommunikationswissenschaft aber noch kaum untersucht, so wie die Rolle der Medien im gesamtwirtschaftlichen...