The US economy was poised on the edge of a recession even before 11 September. Following the attacks, the immediate financial shocks were contained. But, despite plans by the Bush government to provide a large boost to the economy, because of massive overinvestment and overborrowing, a serious...

We present a monthly indicator of geopolitical risk based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions, and examine its evolution and effects since 1985. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the Gulf War, after 9/11, during the 2003 Iraq invasion, during the 2014...