Business and credit cycles have an impact on credit insurance, as they do on other businesses. Nevertheless, in credit insurance, the impact of the systemic risk is even more important and can lead to major losses during a crisis. Because of this, the insurer surveils and manages policies almost...

An OLS and probit framework is used to examine the predictive power of yield spreads with respect to GDP growth and recessions in the Eurozone from the 1990s to the recent past. Credit default swap (CDS) data on sovereign bonds, which provide a direct measure of default risk, are employed as...

We present a limits-to-arbitrage model to study the impact of securitization, leverage and credit risk protection on the cyclicity of bank credit. In a stable bank credit situation, no cycles of credit expansion or contraction appear. Unlevered securitization together with mis-pricing of...

We develop a structural credit risk model to examine how the interactions of liquidity and default risk affect corporate bond pricing. By explicitly modeling debt rollover and by endogenizing the holding costs via collateralized financing, our model generates rich links between liquidity risk...

Firm cyclicality decreases by around 40% after the inception of credit default swap (CDS) trading. The effect is due to CDS firms’ lower asset growth-GDP growth sensitivity in good times and stronger for firms facing a more severe exacting creditor problem. The cyclicality-reducing effect of...

We develop a continuous-time model over business cycles to analyze the effects of credit default swap (CDS) trading on CDS firms’ financial decisions. We show that debtholders’ CDS hedging demand is procyclical. CDS trading postpones debt renegotiation and risktaking investment. CDS firms...