The authors performed a comprehensive time series segmentation study on the 36 Nikkei Japanese industry indices from 1 January 1996 to 11 June 2010. From the temporal distributions of the clustered segments, we found that the Japanese economy never fully recovered from the extended 1997-2003...

We performed a comprehensive time series segmentation study on the 36 Nikkei Japanese industry indices from 1 January 1996 to 11 June 2010. From the temporal distributions of the clustered segments, we found that the Japanese economy never fully recovered from the extended 1997-2003 crisis, and...

Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon --- yet some economic agents could be particularly concerned about severe tail risk, rather than just mean returns. Motivated by present value logic, and the literature's suggestion that required...

The paper examines the informational content of a series of macroeconomic indicator variables with the intention to predict stock market downturns - colloquially also referred to as 'bear markets' - for G7 countries. The sample consists of monthly stock market indices and a set of exogenous...