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The trend-cycle decomposition of output and the Phillips curve : Bayesian estimates for Italy and the Euro area
Busetti, Fabio; Caivano, Michele - In: Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for … 50 (2016) 4, pp. 1565-1587
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011481732
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Mind the output gap : the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area
Groß, Marco; Semmler, Willi - Task Force on Low Inflation (LIFT) - 2017
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the coefficient in the Phillips curve on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636803
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Understanding inflation dynamics in the Euro Area : deviants and commonalities across member countries
Amberger, Johanna; Fendel, Ralf - In: Empirica : journal of european economics 44 (2017) 2, pp. 261-293
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011782897
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The negative mean output gap
Aiyar, Shekhar; Voigts, Simon - 2019
the model's output gap as a benchmark, we further show that common output gap estimation methods exhibit a systematic bias …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103632
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Mind the Output Gap : The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation During Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area
Gross, Marco - 2017
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the co-efficient in the Phillips curve on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963916
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Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area : an empirical assessment
Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - In: Journal of forecasting 34 (2015) 7, pp. 533-542
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011390448
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Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area -- an empirical assessment
Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - 2014
Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010248220
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Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area
Weiske, Sebastian - 2019
The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012309596
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An output gap measure for the euro area : exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity
González-Astudillo, Manuel - In: European economic review : EER 120 (2019), pp. 1-20
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012264066
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Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area
Weiske, Sebastian - 2018
The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928277