This paper proposes estimating causalities in bilateral international trade in simultaneous systems, including domestic and foreign GDP as well as mutual trade flows. Conventional macroeconomic theory mainly follows partial approaches like import functions or exportled growth. Focusing on the US...

Business cycle dynamic in Germany has still been high at the beginning of this year. However in due course of 2008 adverse external impact especially from the US will make themselves being felt. Growth will slow down to 1.4 % in 2009. It will be driven mainly by consumption. Unemployment will go...