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We quantify the contribution of various driving forces to state-level movements in unemployment rates and employment growth from 1956 to 1992. Our story of regional fluctuations in the U.S. economy has a large cast of players -- including government contract awards and the basing of military...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014031096
This paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of the relation between the cyclicality of fiscal policy, output volatility, and economic growth, using a large cross-section of 88 countries over the period 1960 to 2004. Identification of the effects of (endogenous) cyclical fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316549
Il presente lavoro studia le relazioni che intercorrono fra fluttuazioni endogene e crisi finanziarie facendo riferimento ad alcuni concetti, strumenti e metodologie che si rifanno all'analisi di Minsky. In particolare, l'articolo utilizza una funzione degli investimenti basata sul concetto di...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091014
We provide new evidence on the spillover effects from US interest rate changes, focusing on factors that are pertinent to the current conjuncture: weak recovery prospects in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), and the confluence of macroeconomic shocks shaping the path of interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013350818
We decompose the Danish business cycle into ten structural shocks using an open-economy DSGE model with infrequent determination of prices and wages which we estimate with Bayesian techniques. Consistent with the Danish monetary policy regime, we formulate an imperfect peg on the foreign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320942
This paper describes a methodology to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypotheses and to conduct policy exercises in multi-country VAR models with cross unit interdependencies, unit specific dynamics and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604649
This paper describes a methodology to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypotheses and to conduct policy exercises in multi-country VAR models with cross unit interdependencies, unit specific dynamics and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780504
Using a recursive modeling approach and data from the Euro area, the following paper analyzes the counter-cyclicity, stock price volatility is believed to demonstrate with respect to the state of the economy. It further tests whether such interdependence is exploitable for volatility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125603
This paper analyzes to what extent changes in monetary policy regimes influence the business cycle in a small open economy and investigates the impact of policy breaks on the estimation procedure. We estimate a DSGE model on Swedish data, explicitly taking into account the monetary regime change...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003960560
Both analytical models and casual empiricism suggest that the timing of the recessionary costs associated with inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries may depend on the nominal anchor which is used. Under money-based stabilization, the recession occurs at the beginning of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012781866