We examine the hypothesis that deep recessions are followed by strong recoveries using a monthly data set for industrial production covering the period 1884-1990. There is a statistically significant relationship between growth in the first twelve months of a recovery and the peak-to-trough...

The growth of globalization in recent decades has increased the importance of external factors as drivers of the business cycle in many countries. Globalization affects countries not just at the macro level but at the level of states and metro areas as well. This paper isolates the relative...

A mix of global, national and state-specific shocks help drive employment fluctuations between U.S. states. Econometric modeling shows such differences among metropolitan areas also reflect a mix of shocks. Texas cities strongly tied to oil and gas activity appear more affected by energy-sector...