Assessing potential output and the output gap is essential for policy-making and fiscal surveillance. The European Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models. This paper presents the R package RGAP which...

We propose a multivariate simultaneous unobserved components framework to determine the two-sided interactions between structural trend and cycle innovations. We relax the standard assumption in unobserved components models that trends are only driven by permanent shocks and cycles are only...

We study how the output gap affects potential output over time-i.e., the dynamic hysteresis effect. To do so, we introduce novel unobserved components (UC) models that consider hysteresis as a sequence of lagged effects, thus separating the long-run recession-induced adverse effects from other...

Determining potential output and the output gap-two inherently unobservable variables-is a major challenge for macroeconomists. This paper presents the R package sectorgap, which features a flexible modeling and estimation framework for a multivariate Bayesian state space model identifying...

OECD unemployment rates show long swings which dominate shorter business cycle components and these long swings show a range of common patterns. Using a panel of 21 OECD countries 1960-2002, we estimate the common factor that drives unemployment by the first principal component. This factor has...