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The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2010
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010303756
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Forecasting and policy making
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506997
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Would DSGE models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?
Breuss, Fritz - 2016
story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011561187
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Forecasting US recessions : the role of sentiment
Christiansen, Charlotte; Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard; … - In: Journal of banking & finance 49 (2014), pp. 459-468
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010509261
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An overview of forecasting facing breaks
Castle, Jennifer; Clements, Michael P.; Hendry, David F. - 2016
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451503
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Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle : the case of the leading economic index for the United States
Levanon, Gad; Manini, Jean-Claude; Ozyildirim, Ataman; … - In: International journal of forecasting 31 (2015) 2, pp. 399-425
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474152
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Forecasting and policy making
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394237
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Nowcasting euro area GDP with news sentiment : a tale of two crises
Ashwin, Julian; Kalamara, Eleni; Saiz, Lorena - 2021
This paper shows that newspaper articles contain timely economic signals that can materially improve nowcasts of real GDP growth for the euro area. Our text data is drawn from fifteen popular European newspapers, that collectively represent the four largest Euro area economies, and are machine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705416
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Understanding low wage growth in the euro area and European countries
Nickel, Christiane (ed.); Bobeica, Elena (ed.);  … - 2019
Despite notable improvements in the labour market since 2013, wage growth in the euro area was subdued and substantially overpredicted in 2013-17. This paper summarises the findings of an ESCB expert group on the reasons for low wage growth and provides comparable analyses on wage developments...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012063794
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Innovation activities and business cycles : are trademarks a leading indicator?
deGrazia, Charles A. W.; Myers, Amanda; Toole, Andrew A. - In: Industry and innovation 27 (2020) 1/2, pp. 184-203
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012286286