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We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014314068
This paper shows that the parsimoniously time-varying methodology of Callot and Kristensen (2015) can be applied to factor models. We apply this method to study macroeconomic instability in the US from 1959:1 to 2006:4 with a particular focus on the Great Moderation. Models with parsimoniously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532582
This paper investigates business cycle relations among different economies in theEuro area. Cyclical dynamics are explicitly modelled as part of a time series model. Weintroduce mechanisms that allow for increasing or diminishing phase shifts and for time-varyingassociation patterns in different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333890
This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334364
In this paper, we examine the results of GDP trend-cycle decompositions from the estimation of bivariate unobserved components models that allow for correlated trend and cycle innovations. Three competing variables are considered in the bivariate setup along with GDP: the unemployment rate, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219741
This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the euro-area output gap by taking advantage of two types of data heterogeneity. On the one hand, the method uses information on real GDP, inflation, and the unemployment rate for each member state; on the other hand, it jointly considers this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932248
In the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), scholars and policymakers turned their attention to the role of uncertainty in amplifying the effects of economic or financial shocks on economic activity. A growing literature has focused on addressing this question. Most works find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013540621
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003402366
The subprime crisis was quite damaging for hedge funds. Using the local projection method (Jordà 2004, 2005, 2009), we forecast the dynamic responses of the betas of hedge fund strategies to macroeconomic and financial shocks-especially volatility and illiquidity shocks-over the subprime crisis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013169857
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010415730