We propose a simple saving-based measure of the cyclical component in GDP. The measure is motivated by the prediction that the represenative consumer changes savings in response to temporary deviations of income from its stochastic trend, while satisfying a present-value budget constraint. To...

We propose a simple saving-based measure of the cyclical component in GDP. The measure is motivated by the prediction that the represenative consumer changes savings in response to temporary deviations of income from its stochastic trend, while satisfying a present-value budget constraint. To...

Drawing on recent business cycle research on the Great Depression, we return to an argument we advanced in a 1996 article in the Journal of Monetary Economics—the argument that features of the Hawley-Smoot tariffs could have done more to decrease economic activity than is customarily believed,...