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How Much Is Your Vote? Opportunistic Business Cycles of Grant Expenditures in Indonesia’s Local Election
Chalil, Tengku Munawar - 2019
The opportunistic political cycle's theories argued that the incumbent raises the visible expenses in the election time. The paper presents an alternative case that the public planning cycle impedes the incumbent to hike these expenditures. As a short-cut, the incumbent prefers to increase the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012896626
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Corporate lobbying over business cycles
Pan, Wei-Fong - 2021
This study investigates how firms’ lobbying activities change over business cycles. We show that firms lobby more during recessions. Aside from active lobbying firms, non-lobbying firms are also more likely to start lobbying during recessions. Corporate lobbying generally responds only to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321562
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Do expected downturns kill political budget cycles?
Bohn, Frank; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - 2020
The political budget cycle (PBC) literature argues that governments expand deficits in election years. However, what happens when an economic downturn is expected? Will the government allow the deficit to expand even further, or will it resort to spending cuts and tax increases? When voters...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233000
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Variable Rational Partisan Business Cycles : Theory and Some Evidence
Heckelman, Jac C. - 2004
The Variable Rational Partisan Business Cycle model is developed, where agents face uncertainty regarding the timing and outcome of the next election. The model predicts that partisan influences on the economy persist throughout the government's rule and are further influenced, in the opposite...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014113697
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Electricity use as an indicator of U.S. economic activity
Arora, Vipin; Lieskovsky, Jozef - 2016
We argue for the resurrection of an old idea: electricity use as an indicator of U.S. economic activity. Our analysis … relies on associations - the 40-year correlation between growth rates in real GDP and electricity use can be as high as 89 …% - and intuition. Electricity use and economic conditions should move together. The vast majority of goods and services are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011427940
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Dynasties and the Political Budget Cycle
Daniele, Gianmarco - 2018
In this paper, we provide a wide set of results which point toward a better understanding of the role of political dynasties in representative democracies. Our empirical analysis focuses on local politics in Italy, using a large sample of mayors and mayoral candidates in the period 1998-2012. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012935886
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Political Credit Cycles - Myth or Reality?
Kern, Andreas - 2016
This paper tests the existence of political credit cycles, the positive co-movement between credit and elections. While support for this relationship has been found in some single-country studies, the link between electoral cycles and credit expansion has seen little exploration at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979722
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Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation
Müller, Karsten - 2020
Do politics matter for macroprudential policies? I show that changes in macroprudential regulation exhibit a predictable electoral cycle in the run-up to 221 elections across 58 countries from 2000 through 2014. Policies restricting mortgages and consumer credit are systematically looser before...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012852520
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Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation
Müller, Karsten - 2021
Do politics matter for macroprudential policy? I show that changes to macroprudential regulation exhibit a predictable electoral cycle in the run-up to 221 elections across 58 countries from 2000 through 2014. Policies restricting mortgages and consumer credit are systematically less likely to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315065
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Electoral cycles in macroprudential regulation
Müller, Karsten - 2019
Do politics matter for macroprudential policy? I show that changes to macroprudential regulation exhibit a predictable electoral cycle in the run-up to 221 elections across 58 countries from 2000 through 2014. Policies restricting mortgages and consumer credit are systematically less likely to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012135983