Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag model is chosen. The results show that a sharp...

In this paper, the authors propose a measure of underlying inflation for Canada obtained from estimating a monthly factor model on individual components of the CPI. This measure, labelled the common component of CPI, has intuitive appeal and a number of interesting features. In particular, it is...

Is the importance of technology shocks in accounting for the fluctuations in output and hours sensitive to the measure of output? We investigate the contribution of technological shocks to economic fluctuations when output is defined in consumption units, as commonly used in many macroeconomic...

Much research on the dynamics of the aggregate economy concerns the adjustment policy of the microeconomic units. This paper investigates the optimal adjustment policy when there are seasonal fluctuations and fixed adjustment costs. The optimal policy in this case can be described in terms of...

We model firm-owned capital in a stochastic dynamic New-Keynesian general equilibrium model a la Calvo. We find that this structure implies equilibrium dynamics which are quantitatively different from the ones associated with a benchmark case where households accumulate capital and rent it to...

Empirical evidence demonstrates that credit standards, including lending margins and collateral requirements, move in a countercyclical direction. In this study, we construct a small open economy model with financial frictions to generate the countercyclical movement in credit standards. Our...

The purpose of this research is to recommend theoretical and program basis for the new economic policy for the purposes of overcoming the recession and enabling the recovery of production in the Croatian economy. Furthermore, the goal is to show that the results of this study provide the...

This paper employs the unrestricted extended constant conditional correlation GARCH specification proposed in Conrad and Karanasos (2008) to examine the intertemporal relationship between the uncertainties of inflation and output growth in the US. We find that inflation uncertainty effects...

This paper employs an augmented version of the UECCC GARCH specification proposed in Conrad and Karanasos (2010) which allows for lagged in-mean effects, level effects as well as asymmetries in the conditional variances. In this unified framework we examine the twelve potential intertemporal...

In this paper we look at business cycles similarities between CEE countries and the euro area. Particularly, we uncover GDP-inflation cycles by adopting a trend-cycle decomposition model which allows the trend to be either stochastic or deterministic i.e. of the non-linear type. Once cyclical...