This paper explores the link between default risk and fiscal procyclicality. We show that countries with higher sovereign risk have a more procyclical fiscal expenditure policy, which is driven mostly by transfers. We build a small open economy model with income inequality, social transfers, and...

This paper uses the Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) methodology in order to estimate whether 'the cycle is the trend' in 23 emerging markets and 22 OECD economies. These estimates are then used to test whether procyclical fiscal policy in emerging countries is due to persistent shocks to per-capita...

Fiscal procyclicality, meaning co-movement between government expenditure and macroeconomic fundamentals, is an important feature of business cycle dynamics for emerging and poor economies. I estimate a panel SVAR to investigate the reasons for fiscal procyclicality. The analysis sheds light on...

This study develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to account for the differences in fiscal policy stance over the business cycle between developed and emerging market countries, and, in particular, for the volatile and procyclical government consumption and transfer payment in...

I document that US financial uncertainty shocks, measured by an unexpected increase in VIX, have a substantial impact on the output of emerging market economies (EMEs) without material impact on US output during the last two decades. To understand this puzzling phenomenon, I propose an...

This document analyzes the patterns of fiscal and monetary policy in five economies of the Latin American Southern Cone (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay) during four episodes of international crises: 1994, 1997-1999, 2001 and 2008. In contrast with earlier episodes when most...

In the Great Recession most OECD countries used short-time work (publicly subsidized working time reductions) to counteract a steep increase in unemployment. We show that short-time work can actually save jobs. However, there is an important distinction to be made: While the rule-based component...

The present paper offers a fundamental critique of fiscal policy as it is understood in theory and exercised in practice. Two specific demand-side stabilization methods are examined here: conventional pump priming and the new designation of fiscal policy effectiveness found in the New Consensus...

We investigate the short-term effects of fiscal adjustment on economic activity in 20 OECD countries from 1970 to 2009. We compare two approaches: the traditional approach based on changes in cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) and the narrative approach based on historical records....

This paper analyzes the effects of short-time work (i.e., government subsidized working time reductions) on unemployment and output fluctuations. The central question is whether short-time work saves jobs in recessions. In our baseline scenario the rule based component of short-time work (i.e.,...