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Poland on the Road to the Euro : How Serious is the Risk of Boom-Bust Cycles after the Euro Adoption? An Empirical Analysis
Stazka-Gawrysiak, Agnieszka - 2011
) prone to macroeconomic booms and busts and, secondly, to empirically assess the risk of a boom-bust cycle in Poland after … then use the estimated equations to assess the probability of booms and busts in Poland over the period 2004 to 2009. Our … the reverse holds for busts. In turn, our results for Poland are inconclusive, which probably means that the models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014174812
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The role of the exchange rate for adjustment in boom and bust episodes
Martin, Reiner; Schuknecht, Ludger; Vansteenkiste, Isabel - 2007
Numerous countries have experienced boom-bust episodes in asset prices in the past 20 years. This study looks at stylised facts and conducts statistical and econometric analysis for such episodes, distinguishing between industrialised countries that experienced external adjustment (via real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604859
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Does labor force participation rates of youth vary within the business cycle? : evidence from Germany and Poland
Dunsch, Sophie - 2016
Unemployment rates, especially among youth, have increased in various countries of Europe over the last years. As labor force participation rate is one key influence on unemployment, I estimate country specific coefficients for the responsiveness of the labor force participation rates to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011528912
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Booms and busts in housing markets: determinants and implications
Agnello, Luca; Schuknecht, Ludger - 2009
This study looks at real estate price booms and busts in industrialised countries. It identifies major and persistent deviations from long term trends for 18 countries and estimates the probabilities of their occurrence using a Random Effects Panel Probit model over the period 1980-2007. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605117
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Stock price cycles and business cycles
Adam, Klaus; Merkel, Sebastian - 2019
We present a simple model that quantitatively replicates the behavior of stock prices and business cycles in the United States. The business cycle model is standard, except that it features extrapolative belief formation in the stock market, in line with the available survey evidence....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098187
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Policy-driven boom and bust in the housing market : evidence from Mongolia
Doojav, Gan-Ochir; Damdinjav, Davaasukh - In: Asian development review : studies of Asian and pacific … 38 (2021) 2, pp. 279-317
This paper examines the effects of a mortgage interest rate subsidy on booms and busts in the housing market by analyzing the Housing Mortgage program in Mongolia. We find that the most recent housing boom in Mongolia occurred from the second quarter (Q2) of 2012 to first quarter (Q1) of 2014,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013329305
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The monetary and fiscal history of Brazil, 1960-2016
Ayres, Joao; Garcia, Márcio Gomes Pinto; Guillen, Diogo; … - 2019
Brazil has had a long period of high inflation. It peaked around 100 percent per year in 1964, decreased until the first oil shock (1973), but accelerated again afterward, reaching levels above 100 percent on average between 1980 and 1994. This last period coincided with severe balance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012141981
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The Great Depression(s) of 1929-1933 and 2007-2009? Parallels, Differences and Policy Lessons
Eigner, Peter - 2015
This paper provides a comparative analysis of the Great Depression (1929-1933) and the Great Financial Crisis (2007-2009) by contrasting the crises' main driving forces and how they relate to each other with respect to the United States. To this end, causes, consequences and measures undertaken...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021968
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The monetary and fiscal history of Brazil, 1960-2016
Ayres, Joao; Garcia, Márcio Gomes Pinto; Guillen, Diogo; … - 2019
Brazil has had a long period of high inflation. It peaked around 100 percent per year in 1964, decreased until the first oil shock (1973), but accelerated again afterward, reaching levels above 100 percent on average between 1980 and 1994. This last period coincided with severe balance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012008408
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Fiscal Histories
Cochrane, John H. - 2022
The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of real primary surpluses. Monetary policy remains important. The central bank can set an interest rate target, which determines the path of expected inflation, while news about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079501