In this paper we propose a new modelling framework for the analysis of macro series that includes both stochastic trends and stochastic cycles in addition to deterministic terms such as linear and non-linear trends. We examine four US macro series, namely annual and quarterly real GDP and GDP...

In this paper we propose a new modelling framework for the analysis of macro series that includes both stochastic trends and stochastic cycles in addition to deterministic terms such as linear and non-linear trends. We examine four US macro series, namely annual and quarterly real GDP and GDP...

The output gap, usually defined as the difference between the real GDP and that of the potential GDP, indicates the imbalance existing in a real economy. The output gap is based on the definition of unobserved potential output. This article presents estimations of the output gap in Croatian...