We propose the CoJPoD, a novel framework explicitly linking the cross-sectional and cyclical dimensions of systemic risk. In this framework, banking sector distress in the form of the joint probability of default of financial intermediaries (reflecting contagion from both direct and indirect...

The main contribution of this paper is the construction of a cyclical systemic risk indicator from early warning indicators of banking crises (EWIs) used in Finland. Previous research has shown that combining EWIs can enhance their early warning properties. This study evaluates the indicator's...

This paper examines cyclical behavior of banks' systemic risk contribution and exposure. Using an unbalanced panel of 787 banks from countries members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the European Union covering the period 2000:Q1-2017:Q4, we document that both...