This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...

This article aims at assessing the main characteristics of the business cycle of 80 developed and developing countries. By comparing the possibility for these economies to enter or to exit a recession and the associated consequences, it aims at complementing existing literature with regard to...

We introduce a Divisia monetary aggregate for the euro area that accounts for the heterogeneity across member countries both, in terms of interest rates and the decomposition of monetary assets. In most of the euro area countries, the difference between the growth rates of the country-specific...

This article presents basic tools for measuring different business lines' contributions to the U.S. economy's business cycles, and it applies these to measure the exposure of a large conglomerate to macroeconomic risks

Frontmatter -- Contents -- Preface -- Introduction to National Income Accounting -- Section I: Gross National Expenditure and Its Source -- Section II: The Disbursement Circuits Involved in National Income Accounting -- Conclusion