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Sectoral Inflation and the Phillips Curve : What Has Changed Since the Great Recession?
Luengo‐Prado, María José - 2017
Using sectoral data at a medium level of aggregation, we find that price changes became less responsive to aggregate unemployment around 2009–2010. The slopes of the disaggregated Phillips curves diminished in many sectors, including housing and some services. We also document a decrease in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943384
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Endogenous growth, skill obsolescence and output hysteresis in a New Keynesian model with unemployment
Lechthaler, Wolfgang; Tesfaselassie, Mewael F. - 2020
We embed human capital-based endogenous growth into a New-Keynesian model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and skill obsolescence from long-term unemployment. The model can account for key features of the Great Recession: a decline in productivity growth, the relative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012269664
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Reconsidering the natural rate hypothesis
Jump, Robert Calvert; Stockhammer, Engelbert - 2019
The natural rate hypothesis states that there exists an unemployment rate at which inflation is stable, and that this unemployment rate is independent of aggregate demand shocks. The hysteresis hypothesis, in contrast, states that the long run unemployment rate can be affected by aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012006658
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The Phillips Curve: (in)stability, the role of credit, and implications for potential output measurement
Schleer, Frauke; Kappler, Marcus - 2014
The path of output prior to the financial and economic crisis turned out to be not sustainable and lower than previously estimated in some European crisis countries. Specifically, the output gaps have been underestimated (and inversely potential output overestimated) before the recent crisis. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010416360
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Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?
Blanchard, Olivier J. - 2017
Fifty years ago, Milton Friedman articulated the natural rate hypothesis. It was composed of two sub-hypotheses: First, the natural rate of unemployment is independent of monetary policy. Second, there is no long-run tradeoff between the deviation of unemployment from the natural rate and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943414
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The NAIRU and informality in the Mexican labor market
Aguilar-Argaez, Ana María; Alcaraz, Carlo; Ramírez, … - 2020
The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is not directly observable and the presence of informal … formal job. In this paper, we present an estimation of the traditional NAIRU for Mexico and an alternative measure that … includes informality as an indicator of labor underutilization. We find that both measures of NAIRU and the associated labor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012240303
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The Active Role of the Natural Rate of Unemployment during Cyclical Recoveries
Hall, Robert Ernest; Kudlyak, Marianna - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the prevailing view that the rate is essentially constant. We demonstrate that this tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436979
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The active role of the natural rate of unemployment during cyclical recoveries
Hall, Robert Ernest; Kudlyak, Marianna - 2023
We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the prevailing view that the rate is essentially constant. We demonstrate that this tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014423725
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Business Cycles, International Trade and Capital Flows : Evidence from Latin America
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2012
This paper adopts a flexible framework to assess both short- and long-run business cycle linkages between six Latin American (LA) countries and the four largest economies in the world (namely the US, the Euro area, Japan and China) over the period 1980:I-2011:IV. The result indicate that within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097751
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Business Cycles, International Trade and Capital Flows : Evidence from Latin America
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013
This paper adopts a flexible framework to assess both short- and long-run business cycle linkages between six Latin American (LA) countries and the four largest economies in the world (namely the US, the Euro area, Japan and China) over the period 1980:I-2011:IV. The result indicate that within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089557