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Governments in extraction countries are anxious to estimate expected investment in development projects, since they represent an essential element of the macro economy. The overall level of activity is also crucial to oil companies, since the macro picture affects cost levels, the supplies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010417468
To what extent is the international business cycle affected by the fact that an essential input (oil) is traded on the world market? We quantify the contribution of oil by setting up a model with separate shocks to efficiencies of capital/labor and oil, as well as global shocks to the oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011657454
Development projects in the oil industry often have cost overruns. Through analysis of data from Norwegian development projects in the petroleum industry, this paper investigates the common effect of business cycle developments on cost overruns. Lack of capacity and expertise in a tight supplier...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011539018
The process of globalization encompasses economic and financial integration. Abolition of capital controls and dismantling of barriers of different kinds are important ingredients of the process that will entirely change the exposure of previously sheltered companies to shocks on the global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320377
The process of globalization encompasses economic and financial integration. The abolition of capital controls and the dismantling of barriers of different kinds will expose previously sheltered companies to shocks on the global economic arena. Policy-makers in already globalized countries have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003757004
In literature, there is ongoing discussion whether entrepreneurial activity, approximated by, for instance, changes in self-employment, tends to behave pro-cyclically, counter-cyclically or rather is a-cyclical. Thus far, both theoretical and empirical evidence, where various multiple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001802
We investigate the circumstances in which business cycle forecasting is beneficial for business by addressing both the short-run and the long-run aspects. For an assessment of short-run forecasting we make a distinction between using publicly available information of cycle probabilities and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970869
This paper assesses the prospects of a 2021 time bomb in small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) failures triggered by the generous support policies enacted during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. Policies implemented in 2020, on their own, do not create a 2021 time bomb for SMEs. Rather, business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012425090
The financial crisis and its ensuing effects have brought back into the limelight the issue of cycles and of policies which fuel or mitigate crises. Cognitive and operational models in economics and business are questioned. There is a specter of much lower economic growth in the industrialized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012056988
This article documents the business cycle properties of workers' remittance flows to Mexico. We also discuss key differences between the cyclical properties of remittance inflows and the cyclical properties of foreign direct investment (FDI). We find evidence that remittances are countercyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012772479