This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and … Uncertainty ; Bayesian Estimation …

characterize the expected path of nominal and real short-rates as well as inflation using the universe of U.S. surveys of … by term premiums, not expected short rates or inflation; 2) term premiums co-move more strongly across maturities than … is primarily the result of a decline of expected inflation and term premiums while expected future real rates have …

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and …