This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the...

In this paper, we derive a small textbook New Keynesian DSGE model to evaluate Polish and Romanian business cycles during the 2003 - 2014 period. Given the similarities between the two economies, we use an identical calibration procedure for certain coefficients and marginal prior distributions...

This paper investigates the role of fiscal policies over the aggregate EMU business cycle. Previous studies, based on the assumption of non-separability between public and private consumption, obtain a large public consumption multiplier, a small fraction of non-Ricardian households and,...

The output gap, while inherently unobservable, plays a pivotal role in informing policymakers due to its significant implications for forecasting inflation rates and understanding the mechanisms of monetary policy transmission. Traditional filters frequently employed in estimating the output gap...

The post-global financial crisis (GFC) macroeconomic dynamics in Korea displays diminished output and inflation variability with a slowdown in real activity, compared to the first decade of the 2000s. This paper investigates these two distinctive macroeconomic features in Korea by estimating a...

We propose a new VAR identification scheme that enables us to disentangle immigration shocks from other macroeconomic shocks. Identification is achieved by imposing sign restrictions on Norwegian data over the period 1990Q1-2014Q2. The availability of a quarterly series for net immigration is...

We propose a new VAR identification scheme that enables us to disentangle labor supply shocks from wage bargaining shocks. Identification is achieved by imposing robust signrestrictions that are derived from a New Keynesian model with endogenous labor force participation. According to our...

We estimate the effects of domestic and international sources of macroeconomic uncertainty in three commonly studied small open economies (SOEs): Australia, Canada and New Zealand. To this end, we propose a common stochastic volatility in mean panel VAR (CSVM-PVAR), and develop an efficient...

This paper aims to shed light on the role of credit supply shocks in euro area countries during the recent pre-crisis, bust, and post-crisis periods. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility à la Primiceri (2005) is estimated for each country, and the...

The empirical support for a DSGE type of real business cycle model with two technology shocks is evaluated using a Bayesian model averaging procedure that makes use of a finite mixture of many models within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. The linear VAR model is extended to...