The collapse of international trade surrounding the Great Recession has garnered significant attention. This paper studies firm entry and exit in foreign markets and their role in the post-recession recovery of U.S. exports using confidential microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau. We find that...

I introduce commodities and countries' different commodity trade structures into an otherwise standard two-country model to analyze international business cycles between the U.S. and commodity-exporting countries. In the model, only the foreign country (the commodity-exporting country) produces...

Until the 1990s, standard models with two large open economies (i.e. the U.S. and Europe) provided plausible representations of the world economy. However, with the emergence of many countries such as China since then, this approach no longer seems reasonable. In line with this change to the...

The paper assesses how close Asian countries are to an Optimal Currency Area in terms of business cycle synchronization, with a focus on supply shock asymmetry. Based on a Structural VAR model, the importance of symmetric and asymmetric supply shocks is teasted for all ASEAN+3 countries. In...

We show that a model with imperfectly forecastable changes in future productivity and an occasionally binding collateral constraint can match a set of stylized facts about "sudden stop" events. "Good" news about future productivity raises leverage during times of expansion, increasing the...

Using a novel data set for 17 countries dating from 1900 to 2013, we characterize business cycles in both small developed and developing countries in a model with financial frictions and a common shock structure. We estimate the model jointly for these 17 countries using Bayesian methods. We...

Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). This paper documents how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. A commodity sector is then embedded into a multi-country EMEs business cycle...

We show that a model with imperfectly forecastable changes in future productivity and an occasionally binding collateral constraint can match a set of stylized facts about “sudden stop” events. “Good” news about future productivity raises leverage during times of expansion, increasing...

Business cycles appear highly synchronized across countries. To understand this empirical phenomenon, I develop a multi-country international real business cycle model with international trade that offers several potential explanations: shocks to TFP, demand, leisure, investment, economic...