Nach einer langanhaltenden Abwärtsbewegung ist im Bereich der Unternehmensinsolvenzen die Trendwende nach oben eingeleitet. Im Anschluss an einen leichten Anstieg im Jahr 2022, der auch als Schritt der Normalisierung nach dem kräftigen Rückgang in der Corona-Pandemie 2020/21 aufgefasst werden...

This article provides new insights into the cyclical behavior of consumer and producer real wages in the USA and Germany. We apply two methods for the estimation of the cyclical components from the data: the approach based on the structural time series models and the ARIMA-model-based approach...

In this paper we extend the Stock and Watson's (Leading economic indicators, new approaches and forecasting records, 1991) single-index dynamic factor model in an econometric framework that has the advantage of combining information from real and financial indicators published at different...

This paper is an exercise in dating the Euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. Using a quite flexible interpolation routine. we construct several monthly series of Euro area GDP, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. To account for the asymmetry in growth regimes and duration...

In a pioneering attempt we present the R(ecession)-word index for Switzerland. We evaluate its predictive ability of GDP growth using real-time vintages of GDP data, closely simulating flow of information in the past. We find that inclusion of the R-word index led to statistically significant...

On the basis of keyword searches in newspaper articles several versions of the Recession-word Index (RWI) are constructed for Germany and Switzerland. We use these indices in order to track the business cycle dynamics in these two countries. Our main findings are the following. First, we show...

This paper introduces a multivariate long-memory model with structural breaks. In the proposed framework, time series exhibit possibly fractional orders of integration which are allowed to be different in each subsample. The break date is endogenously determined using a procedure which minimises...

This paper considers a general model which allows for both deterministic and stochastic forms of seasonality, including fractional (stationary and nonstationary) orders of integration, and also incorporating endogenously determined structural breaks. Monte Carlo analysis shows that the suggested...

We analyse the decline in output volatility in Germany. A lower level of variance in an autoregressive model of output growth can be either due to a change in the structure of the economy (a change in the propagation mechanism) or a reduced error term variance (reduced impulses). In Germany the...

This paper establishes stylized facts about the cyclicality of real consumer wages and real producer wages in Germany. As detrending methods we apply the deterministic trend model, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Baxter-King filter and the structural time...