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This paper studies the influence of external financial factors on economic activity in emerging economies (EMEs … of corporate bonds issued in foreign capital markets, and its relationship with economic activity is examined. Results … show that the indicator has considerable predictive power on future economic activity. Furthermore, an identified adverse …
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An OLS and probit framework is used to examine the predictive power of yield spreads with respect to GDP growth and recessions in the Eurozone from the 1990s to the recent past. Credit default swap (CDS) data on sovereign bonds, which provide a direct measure of default risk, are employed as...
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area economic activity, with one standard deviation increase in the identified uncertainty shock subtracting around 0 …
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