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Would DSGE models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?

Breuss, Fritz - 2016

story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011561187

On the cyclicality of real wages and wage differentials

Otrok, Christopher; Pourpourides, Panayiotis M. - 2008

We show that two models of the labor market, a Walrasian model and a labor contracting model, both have an approximate dynamic factor structure. We use this result to motivate our empirical approach to estimating the cyclical properties of real wages, which does not impose any structure between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288748

On the cyclicality of real wages and wage differentials

Otrok, Christopher M. (contributor); … - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003746900

Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions

Cakmakli, Cem; Paap, Richard; van Dijk, Dick - 2011

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions inmonthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitchingmodels indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recessionregimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326552

Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions

Çakmaklı, Cem; Paap, Richard; van Dijk, Dick - 2012

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with 'mild' and 'severe'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500207

Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions

Çakmaklı, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - 2012

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with 'mild' and 'severe'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009511771

Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions

Çakmaklı, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009720726

Global and local components of output gaps

Eckert, Florian; Mühlebach, Nina - 2021

This paper proposes a multi-level dynamic factor model to identify common components in output gap estimates. We pool multiple output gap estimates for 157 countries and decompose them into one global, eight regional, and 157 country-specific cycles. Our approach easily deals with mixed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012663182

Is decoupling in action?

Pesce, Antonio - 2013

Emerging market economies (also known as emerging economies, EEs) have become important on the world economic stage, where they now play a vital role in international trade and financial flows and account for a conspicuous fraction of the global economic dynamic. Despite the relatively tepid...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011508846

Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin

Canova, Fabio; Ciccarelli, Matteo - 2011

We investigate the similarities of macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin and their convergence. A model with three indicators, covering the West, the East and the MENA portions of the Mediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980. Convergence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009354653

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