This paper examines Australia’s terms of trade boom since 2003 with a particular interest in quantifying the links between the terms of trade and sectoral performance and identifying an associated ‘secondary services boom’. Comparative static general equilibrium modelling and empirical...

The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the...

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a...

This paper studies the role of confidence in the transmission of uncertainty shocks during U.S. recessions. I use smooth-transition VAR to examine the regime-dependent effect of uncertainty shocks, and a counterfactual decomposition to isolate the role of confidence when the economy is in...

In a Markov switching framework, we show that the duration of recessions is significantly shorter than the duration of expansions in 11 manufacturing sectors, and aggregate durables and manufacturing output. We find two leading indicators, consumer expectations and the term spread, act as...

Most of Russia's industrial sectors saw output in terms of volume stabilize at a low level in H1 2016. Output began to grow slowly at year's end. The summary index of the manufacturing sector was driven by positive dynamics during the last few months of the year. Given that Russia's economy is...

We show that financial variables contribute to the forecast of GDP growth during the Great Recession, providing additional insights on both first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. If a recession is due to an unforeseen shock (such as the Covid-19 recession), financial variables...

We show that financial variables contribute to the forecast of GDP growth during the Great Recession, providing additional insights on both first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. If a recession is due to an unforeseen shock (such as the Covid-19 recession), financial variables...

In this paper we use the Butterworth filter in order to extract the signals of the total manufacturing production and its sub-sectors, in its low and high frequencies. In the low frequencies, the trend of production presents strong differences among industrial activities. In the high...

We investigate the link between macroeconomic uncertainty and business cycle asymmetry of the U.S. economy. To this end, we propose an unobserved component model in which the shocks are asymmetrically distributed, and the degree of asymmetry varies with macroeconomic uncertainty. An efficient...