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Business cycles in oil exporting countries : a declining role for oil?
Huseynov, Salman; Ahmadov, Vugar - 2014
find that rising global political and economic integration can play a critical role in explaining business cycles of these … world business cycles, the sources of economic fluctuations have become more diversified, and consequently, the role of oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010244566
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The origins and effects of macroeconomic uncertainty
Bianchi, Francesco; Kung, Howard; Tirskikh, Mikhail - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 14 (2023) 3, pp. 855-896
We estimate a production‐based general equilibrium model featuring demand‐ and supply‐side uncertainty and an endogenous term premium. Using term structure and macroeconomic data, we find sizable effects of uncertainty on risk premia and business cycle fluctuations. Both demand‐ and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362538
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Investment shocks and business cycles
Justiniano, Alejandro; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; … - 2008
Shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment are the most important drivers of business cycle fluctuations in U.S. output and hours. Moreover, like a textbook demand shock, these disturbances drive prices higher in expansions. We reach these conclusions by estimating a dynamic stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283518
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Measuring business cycles : a review
Škare, Marinko; Stjepanović, Saša - In: Contemporary economics 10 (2016) 1, pp. 83-94
This article summarizes the main findings on problems related to the measurement and identification of business cycles …. The aim of this study is to define and identify the determinants of business cycles. This paper provides an overview of … literature, but none is perfect. A new development in the field lies in spectral analysis methods for measuring business cycles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011453001
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Is decoupling in action?
Pesce, Antonio - 2013
hypothesis implies two main consequences. First, the comovement of economic cycles between AEs and EEs should decrease over time … evaluate the correlation of the international economic cycles, and 2) a time-varying Panel VAR model was used to decompose …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011508846
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Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle
Reif, Magnus - 2019
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
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Estimation of DSGE models : maximum likelihood vs. Bayesian methods
Mickelsson, Glenn - 2015
DSGE models are typically estimated using Bayesian methods, but a researcher may want to estimate a DSGE model with full information maximum likelihood (FIML) so as to avoid the use of prior distributions. A very robust algorithm is needed to find the global maximum within the relevant parameter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011407664
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How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy?
Geiger, Martin; Güntner, Jochen - 2019
We investigate how oil supply shocks are transmitted to U.S. economic activity, consumer prices, and interest rates. Using a structural VAR approach with a combination of sign and zero restrictions, we distinguish between supply and demand channels in the transmission of exogenous changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009877
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Quarterly GDP estimates for the German states
Lehmann, Robert; Wikman, Ida - 2022
-specific business cycles as well as in the degrees of cyclical concordance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013173579
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Quarterly GDP estimates for the German States : new data for business cycle analyses and long-run dynamics
Lehmann, Robert; Wikman, Ida - 2023
To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states. In this paper, we calculate quarterly regional GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2021, thereby improving the regional database for Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013549105