euro area as a whole and in its five largest countries. In a Bayesian VAR framework, the two credit supply shocks are … for business cycles. For the euro area, the explanatory power of the two credit supply shocks for GDP growth variations is …

cycle adding information from bank-level balance sheet data to a SVAR with sign restrictions. We find that the short-run GDP …

tends to be tightened when credit expands. The main empirical results from the analysis, which uses panel vector … autoregression models, are that contractionary macroprudential policy has significant negative effects on credit and output; and that … potential policy conflicts when credit conditions are excessive and the economy is in recession. …