This paper investigates within a SVAR framework the effects of anticipated monetary policy in the euro area. Building on a procedure recently proposed by Cochrane yielding the response of output to an anticipated monetary policy impulse, we show that in the past twenty years anticipated monetary...

This paper discusses the paper "The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis using Long-Run Restrictions" by Neville Francis and Valerie A. Ramey. It argues that these authors have made great progress both in the precise measurement of labor input as well as determining the effect...

This paper studies the role of confidence in the transmission of uncertainty shocks during U.S. recessions. I use smooth-transition VAR to examine the regime-dependent effect of uncertainty shocks, and a counterfactual decomposition to isolate the role of confidence when the economy is in...

Using a dynamic factor model that allows for changes in both the long-run growth rate of output and the volatility of business cycles, we document a significant decline in long-run output growth in the United States. Our evidence supports the view that most of this slowdown occurred prior to the...

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a...

I show that inter-firm lending plays an important role in business cycle fluctuations. I first build a tractable network model of the economy in which trade in intermediate goods is financed by supplier credit. In the model, a financial shock to one firm affects its ability to make payments to...

This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncraticshocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, andevaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by dynamic factor methods. Wefind that the Great Recession is...

A vector error-correction model (VECM) of output, consumption, investment, and credit is identified and estimated, employing the Johansen-Juselius (1990) test for cointegration. Because the Austrian school views economic activity as a disequilibrium process, VECM estimates offer an empirical...

This paper surveys and examines the sources of fluctuations in inflation and output in Turkey. Using a dynamic open economy aggregate supply - aggregate demand model with imperfect capital mobility and structural vector-autoregressions, the authors consider real oil price, supply, balance of...

This paper discusses the paper 'The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis using Long-Run Restrictions' by Neville Francis and Valerie A. Ramey. It argues that these authors have made great progress both in the precise measurement of labor input as well as determining the effect...