Using U.S. data for 1976-2013, this paper studies the effects of various macroeconomic variables, particularly the national debt, government budget deficits and taxes, on fertility decisions over the business cycle. A rise in the debt-GDP ratio, government spending-GDP ratio and the deficit-GDP...

According to empirical studies, the life cycle of labor supply volatility exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This may lead to the conclusion that demographic change induces a drop in output volatility. We present an overlapping generations model that replicates the empirically observed pattern and...

Socio-economic status is commonly conceptualised as the social standing or well-being of an individual or society. Higher socio-economic status has long been identified as a contributing factor for mortality improvement. This paper studies the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations (having GDP as...

Data demonstrate a correlation between demographic variables and financial cycle: an increase in the working-age population is associated with an expansion of the financial cycle, that is, credit growth and increased housing prices. To account for this stylized fact, this paper uses an OLG model...

This paper applies time series analysis to distinguish between cyclical and demographic causes of the decline of the labor force participation rate. Some public discussions suggest that the decline of US unemployment from its 2009 peak of 10 percent to about 6 percent by mid-2014 grossly...

Population growth rates have fallen considerably in most developed countries. An important question for monetary policy is whether this has led to a fall in the natural rate of interest. In representative agent models, the response of the natural rate to a fertility shock crucially depends on...

This paper studies the effects of demographic structure on the cyclical volatility of aggregate consumption. We first document that young households have more volatile consumption expenditures in business cycles than prime-aged ones. Then, we identify large effects of demographic composition on...

In this study, we examine how economic performance during the child-specific primary school phase, during which teachers make recommendations regarding secondary school level, affects the educational level achieved ultimately by these children. Using data for Germany, we find that an economic...