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We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is …
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In this paper we document the asymmetric role that the U.S. stock market plays in the international predictability of ….S. returns in predictability of stock returns in 10 industrialised countries. …
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The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability …
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We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...
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