This paper explores the mean-reverting behavior of the unemployment rate using monthly geographically disaggregated … regimes at unknown points of time. We find that the Great Recession also altered the persistence of the unemployment rate …

unemployment rate is independent of aggregate demand shocks. The hysteresis hypothesis, in contrast, states that the long run … unemployment rate can be affected by aggregate demand shocks. While policy makers have warned of the risk of hysteresis since the …The natural rate hypothesis states that there exists an unemployment rate at which inflation is stable, and that this …

law with a focus on the dynamic part of the relationship. We find that the negative relationship between unemployment and … misspecification of the short run unemployment-output relationship. A mixed lag structure indirectly controls for missing explanatory …

Using threshold regression analysis, this paper studies how the relationship between unemployment and output, known as … strong asymmetries in the relationship characterized by three different regimes, where the sensitivity of unemployment to …, Okun's law is strong when the unemployment gap grows faster than 1.07 percentage points above the natural rate of …

This paper explores the evidence for positive hysteresis in the labor market. Using data from the National Longitudinal … Surveys of Youth, we find that negative labor market outcomes during high-unemployment periods are mitigated by exposure to a …

in German unemployment is fully explained by hysteresis. The Great Recession was well absorbed because both hysteresis …We construct a new Markov-switching unobserved components framework for the analysis of hysteresis effects. Our model … effects and structural unemployment were substantially reduced after institutional reforms. In contrast, U.S. unemployment did …

This paper provides a model of "social hysteresis" whereby long, deep recessions demotivate workers and thereby lead …

in NAIRU but do not appear as promising explanations of the events of the early 1990s. The fall in unemployment in the …By international standards, unemployment in Sweden remained remarkably low throughout the 1970s and the 1980s. In the … early 1990s, however, the unemployment rate skyrocketed and hit double-digit levels. Unemployment remained high for several …

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for … particular, we propose two broad categories of unemployment rate benchmarks: (1) a longer-run unemployment rate expected to … prevail after adjusting to business cycle shocks and (2) a stable-price unemployment rate tied to inflationary pressures. We …

labor market and skill obsolescence from long-term unemployment. The model can account for key features of the Great … aggregate demand raises unemployment and the training costs associated with skill obsolescence. Lower employment hinders … contractionary effect on output. The temporary growth slowdown translates into output hysteresis (permanently lower output and labor …