near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR …) model. We report three main results. First, the decline in global inflation during the 2020 global recession was the most … muted and shortest-lived of any of the five global recessions over the past 50 years and the increase in inflation since May …

shock has remained fairly stable. Simulations from a non-linear DSGE model suggest that these empirical results are …

This paper uses a FAVAR model with stochastic volatility to estimate the impact of uncertainty shocks on real income …