This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups: industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions inmonthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitchingmodels indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recessionregimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...

Are optimism shocks an important source of business cycle fluctuations? Are deficit-financed tax cuts better than deficit-financed spending to increase output? These questions have been previously studied using structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) identified with sign and zero restrictions...

Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...

We analyze the impact of short-run economic fluctuations on age-specific mortality usingBayesian time series econometrics and contribute to the debate on the procyclicality ofmortality. For the first time, we examine the differing consequences of economic changesfor all individual age classes....