We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...

Purpose: In this study, we empirically demonstrate how the new variable of "cyclical consumption" can capture consumption risk and predict expected stock returns, which relationship is stronger and should be considered as the primary macro indicator for stock markets between KOSPI and KOSDAQ,...