Commodity-exporting economies display procyclicality with the price of commodity exports. However, the evidence for the relative importance of commodity price shocks for aggregate fluctuations remains inconclusive. Using Russian data from 2001-2018 we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian...

Busts after periods of prolonged prosperity have been found to be catastrophic. Financial institutions increase their leverage and shift their portfolios towards projects that were previously considered too risky. This results from institutions rationally updating their expectations and becoming...

We investigate the cyclical properties of non-bank credit and its relevance for financial stability. We construct a measure of non-bank credit for a large sample of countries and find that its cyclical properties differ from those of bank credit. Non-bank credit cycles are highly correlated with...