using the commonly employed yield spread remains high, provided that biases associated with Eurozone sovereign default risk …An OLS and probit framework is used to examine the predictive power of yield spreads with respect to GDP growth and … recessions in the Eurozone from the 1990s to the recent past. Credit default swap (CDS) data on sovereign bonds, which provide a …

cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct … recessions, the median-short yield spread trumps the long-short spread for horizons up to 17 months ahead and the yield curve … shape is nearly impressive as the median-short spread. Overall, the yield curve shape is an informative but more succinct …