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The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model

Creal, Drew; Koopman, Siem Jan; Zivot, Eric - 2008

In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325871

The effect of the great moderation on the US business cycle in a time-varying multivariate trend-cycle model

Creal, Drew; Koopman, Siem Jan; Zivot, Eric - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376640

Measuring international uncertainty : the case of Korea

Shin, Minchul; Zhang, Boyuan; Zhong, Molin; Lee, Dong Jin - 2017 - This version: April 20, 2017

We leverage a data rich environment to construct and study a measure of macroeconomic uncertainty for the Korean economy. We provide several stylized facts about uncertainty in Korea from 1991M10-2016M5. We compare and contrast this measure of uncertainty with two other popular uncertainty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011710042

Measuring uncertainty and its effects in a small open economy

Cabello, Miguel; Nivin, Rafael - 2022

In the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), scholars and policymakers turned their attention to the role of uncertainty in amplifying the effects of economic or financial shocks on economic activity. A growing literature has focused on addressing this question. Most works find...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013540621

What has caused global business cycle decoupling : smaller shocks or reduced sensitivity?

Berger, Tino; Richter, Julia - 2017

According to a growing body of empirical literature, global shocks have become less important for business cycles in industrialized countries and emerging market economies since the mid-1980s. In this paper, we analyze the question of what might have caused a decoupling from the global business...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584095

Would DSGE models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?

Breuss, Fritz - 2016

story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011561187

Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions

Cakmakli, Cem; Paap, Richard; van Dijk, Dick - 2011

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions inmonthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitchingmodels indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recessionregimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326552

Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions

Çakmaklı, Cem; Paap, Richard; van Dijk, Dick - 2012

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with 'mild' and 'severe'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500207

Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions

Çakmaklı, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - 2012

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with 'mild' and 'severe'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009511771

Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions

Çakmaklı, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009720726

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