The Brazilian economy in 2015 was afflicted by a lethal combination of decelerating activity and accelerating inflation. Expectations for 2016 are equally or even more adverse, since the effects of rising unemployment emerge only after a lag. The domestic debate has pitted analysts who believe...

This paper proposes an empirical framework to estimate Okun's law which focuses on structural breaks and threshold nonlinearity. We use sequentially the Bai and Perron's (1998, 2003) structural break and threshold methodology to enable regime-dependent as well as threshold-dependent changes in...

This paper applies Tian's liquidity risk model to analysis the liquidity shocks to the banking industry during the Great Depression. The weekly change of banks' balance sheet shows banks' liquidity preference was changed significantly during 1920s. Call-loans, functioned as today's shadow...

In modern economies, sharp increases in unemployment from major adverse shocks result in long periods of abnormal unemployment and low output. This chapter investigates the processes that account for these persistent slumps. The data are from the economy of the United States, and the discussion...

This paper analyzes the main drivers of external competitiveness in times of crisis for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). We focus on the Italian experience in the midst of the financial and sovereign-debt crisis, and present robust evidence based on a comprehensive survey of Italian...

This article takes advantage of access to confidential matched bank-firm data relative to the Belgian economy to investigate whether and how employment decisions of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been affected by credit constraints in the wake of the Great Recession. Variability...

It has been argued that existing DSGE models cannot properly account for the evolution of key macroeconomic variables during and following the recent Great Recession, and that models in which inflation depends on economic slack cannot explain the recent muted behavior of inflation, given the...