evidence for the existence of a wishful bias against predicting recessions. If this bias exists, customers of SPF forecasts …

There is evidence in the economic literature that near cyclical peaks an optimistic bias exists in private expert … and those made during contractions. It has also been hypothesized that a wishful bias may hamper the ability to recognize … would be missed in real time); b) there is a wishful bias in forecasts against predicting recessions (this reluctance may be …