This paper studies an economy in which incomplete markets and strong complementarities interact to generate path dependent aggregate output fluctuations. An economy is said to be path dependent when the effect of a shock on the level of aggregate output is permanent in the absence of future...

This paper explores the impact of incomplete markets and strong complementarities on the time series properties of aggregate activity. We consider an economy which consists of a large number of industries whose production functions both are nonconvex and exhibit localized technological...

In this paper, we examine the relationship between the price level and output and the inflation rate and output at business-cycle frequencies. In the first part of the paper, we develop a methodological approach based on the time series bootstrap adjusted for model uncertainty to characterize...

In this paper, we examine the relationship between the price level and output and the inflation rate and output at business-cycle frequencies. In the first part of the paper, we develop a methodological approach to characterizing joint business cycle correlations. In particular, we are...